Profitable bettor on quiet market

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for May 16 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Philadelphia Phillies or Pittsburgh Pirates. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Profitable sports wallet made a $5k NRFI bet that was large relative to the market’s quiet volume, despite only a modest composite signal.
Total
$5,028
Trades
1
Win Rate
44%
Wallet P&L
+$63,835
Analysis
- This bettor is up $185k lifetime across 96 resolved markets, despite only winning about half their bets.
- They put $5k on No, a large bet for a first-inning run market with limited liquidity.
- Entry at 56¢ suggests they see the no-run first inning as meaningfully underpriced.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 56¢
Detected May 16, 2026 at 8:10 PM