81% winner on thin market

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Spirit and ex-HEROIC in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 17 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against ex-HEROIC. This market will resolve to "ex-HEROIC" if ex-HEROIC win the match against Team Spirit. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 81% winner is buying Team Spirit on a thin Dota market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
Total
$1,171
Trades
1
Win Rate
81%
Wallet P&L
+$1,798
Analysis
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $1,798 lifetime.
- The $1,171 buy is large for this quiet market, equal to about 43% of 24h volume.
- Entry at 80¢ suggests they are backing the heavy favorite despite a thin 5¢ spread.
Copy Trade
Buy Team Spirit at 80¢
Detected May 16, 2026 at 11:42 PM