Thin-market whale betting No

The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. This market will resolve according to the film which is nominated for the greatest number of Oscars at the 99th Academy Awards, currently expected to take place in March of 2027. A film will be considered to be nominated for an award if it or members of its crew, cast, or production are nominated for an award for work related to that film. In the event of a tie for the greatest number of nominations, this market will resolve in favor of the film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. If for any reason no nominations are announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A large $19.7K bet on No represents substantial conviction in an exceptionally quiet, thinly traded market, though the wallet's track record is only moderate.
Total
$19,666
Trades
2
Win Rate
60%
Wallet P&L
+$28,475
Analysis
- This bettor wagered $19,666 on No in a market with only $51 of 24-hour volume and about $8,000 of liquidity.
- The position is concentrated at roughly 87¢, implying the trader sees Dune: Messiah as unlikely to lead all films in nominations.
- The wallet has made 685 resolved trades and is up $129,000, but its 57% win rate does not establish a strong edge at this price.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 88¢
Detected August 2, 2026 at 9:02 AM