Profitable serial trader moves thin market

In the upcoming Liga MX game between Club León FC and FC Juárez, scheduled for September 27 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Club León FC and FC Juárez combine to score 1 or more goals in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). If the combined first-half total is less than 1 goals, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
A historically profitable serial trader placed a sizable Under bet in a thin market, and the price rose sharply afterward, though the current price is above a reasonable copy ceiling.
Total
$1,634
Trades
1
Win Rate
69%
Wallet P&L
+$221,032
Analysis
- The wallet is up $264,576 across 2,683 resolved bets, though its 75% win rate is not especially strong relative to its average winning price.
- The $1,634 Under bet was larger than the market’s reported 24-hour volume; Under has since moved from 56¢ to 84¢.
- The move has already passed a 66¢ copy ceiling, so chasing at the current price looks unattractive.
Copy Trade
Buy Under at 56¢
Detected September 28, 2026 at 1:59 AM