Serial trader makes oversized No bet
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
A sizable No position dominates this quiet market, backed by a serial cross-market trader, though the wallet’s win rate does not clearly beat its average winning odds.
Total
$1,454
Trades
1
Win Rate
87%
Wallet P&L
+$4,768,162
Analysis
- The $1,454 No bet is about 2.9 times the market’s 24-hour volume, in a market with only $767 liquidity.
- This wallet has traded across 29 events and won 87% of resolved bets, though its 94¢ average winning price makes the record less compelling on odds alone.
- The trader bought No at 88¢ while the market was priced around 88¢, so the signal is conviction and size rather than an obvious price discount.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 88¢
Detected September 28, 2026 at 9:37 AM