Serial cross-market bettor fading Over

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Türkiye and Italy, scheduled for September 28 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Türkiye and Italy combine to score 6 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 6, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
A serial cross-market trader made a sizable contrarian sale of Over after a sharp price rise, though their long-term win rate does not clearly beat their average odds.
Total
$1,185
Trades
1
Win Rate
77%
Wallet P&L
+$192,502
Analysis
- The bettor sold Over at 75¢ after its price had surged 65% in a day, taking the opposite side of the momentum.
- The $1,185 trade is about 18% of the market’s reported 24-hour volume.
- The wallet has 1,581 resolved bets and a 78% win rate, though its average winning price of 80¢ makes the record less compelling as evidence of an edge.
Copy Trade
Buy Under at 25¢
Detected September 28, 2026 at 8:12 PM