Large contrarian bet in a quiet market
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A sizable sale of No effectively buys Yes at 22¢, dwarfing the quiet market’s recent volume, though the trader’s record does not establish a strong edge.
Total
$1,437
Trades
1
Win Rate
60%
Wallet P&L
+$620,011
Analysis
- The $1,437 trade effectively buys Yes at 22¢, over 12 times the market’s $113 in 24-hour volume.
- The trader has a large lifetime profit, but their 59% win rate and 88¢ average winning price don’t clearly show an edge here.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 22¢
Detected October 28, 2026 at 3:25 PM