Experienced trader makes oversized No bet

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by Anthropic in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. Shares sold in any private placement concurrent with the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A profitable, highly experienced trader placed $6,482 on No in a thin market, far exceeding its recent trading volume, though the wallet’s overall win rate does not show a clear edge.
Total
$6,482
Trades
2
Win Rate
49%
Wallet P&L
+$223,565
Analysis
- The trader put $6,482 on No—about 25 times the market’s 24-hour volume.
- This wallet has earned $231,269 across more than 2,800 resolved bets, though its 50% win rate offers limited evidence of a strong edge.
- The market has only $2,435 in liquidity, so the large position stands out but may be difficult to copy at a similar price.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 83¢
Detected October 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM