Large contrarian position in thin market

In the upcoming Saudi Professional League game between Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club and Al Fayha Saudi Club, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The following abandonment rules apply only when this market's outcome was not already definitively determined under its rules before abandonment. If the game is abandoned, this market will resolve according to the official ruling of the governing body or event organizers on the abandoned game. If a result is awarded by Saturday, November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that determines this market's outcome, this market will resolve based on the awarded result, regardless of the score as played. If no such result is awarded and the result as played at the time of abandonment is declared to stand by Saturday, November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the game as played. If the game is replayed or resumed from the point of abandonment and has an official result by Saturday, November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the completed result. In any other case, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from Saudi Professional League (https://www.slstat.com/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "No".
The wallet made a sizable, repeated bet against a strong favorite in a thin market, though its long-term record does not establish a clear edge.
Total
$2,800
Trades
2
Win Rate
59%
Wallet P&L
+$77,760
Analysis
- The wallet sold about $2,800 of Yes at 83–85¢, equivalent to buying No around 16¢ against an 84% favorite.
- The trades were roughly 65% of the market’s $4,314 liquidity and far exceeded the reported $200 in 24-hour volume.
- The wallet is up $77,989 across 1,769 resolved trades, but its 59% win rate is not clear evidence of a strong edge.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 16¢
Detected November 2, 2026 at 6:57 PM