The bet is not really about whether the Strait of Hormuz matters. Everyone knows it does. The bet is narrower, stranger, and easier to score: will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15?
On Friday, several experienced Polymarket accounts answered with money: probably not.
The wallets
The loudest account was 0xf396…eed0d, a wallet — meaning one Polymarket user account — with a closed record of 17 wins and 2 losses. Its lifetime profit is about $82k, according to PolySpotter’s wallet profile data. Late Friday, it bought roughly $44k of “No” on the May 15 Hormuz market in two trades about 12 minutes apart.
That is not a one-off tourist bet. The same account previously bought more than $102k of “No” on the April 30 version of this same question, sold about $44k of it, and still recorded about $27k in realized profit when that deadline failed. It also has profitable closed bets on adjacent U.S.-Iran questions, including a permanent peace deal market and an Iran diplomatic meeting market.
Another notable account, 0xf9c…39e2, has an even cleaner closed record: 10 wins, 0 losses, and about $76k in profit. It bought “No” on the May 15 Hormuz market three times in the picked alerts, paying around 82¢ to 83¢. In the broader event history, that wallet shows about $45k bought on May 15 “No” across 8 trades, plus another $6k on “No” for the May 31 deadline.
The bet
The center of gravity is May 15. Across the last 24 hours of flagged trades, three accounts bought about $64k of “No” on that market. In plain English: they are betting Trump will not announce the blockade has been lifted by that date.
The largest single push came from the 17-2 account, but it was not alone. The 10-0 account bought earlier in the day, and a much older account with more than 1,000 closed positions and about $164k in lifetime profit added a smaller “No” buy near the end of the window.
There was another side, but it was much smaller. One account bought about $3k of “Yes” on May 15 at 19¢. That same account later bought about $8k of “No” on the May 22 deadline, so its activity does not read like a simple all-in argument for an imminent announcement.
What the market thinks
Polymarket prices double as probabilities. The May 15 “Yes” price was last around 15¢, meaning the market gives that deadline roughly a 15% chance. The best bid and ask were 14¢ and 15¢, respectively.
The later dates are higher, as you would expect for a “by this date” question. May 22 was around 25%. May 31 was around 40%. That creates a visible calendar: traders are not saying the blockade can never be lifted, only that the next two weeks look difficult for an official Trump announcement.
This is not a tiny market, either. The Hormuz event has traded about $9.9M in total volume, with about $590k in the last 24 hours. The May 15 market alone saw about $216k in 24-hour volume. Earlier April deadlines in the same event are already closed, with “Yes” prices effectively near zero, which gives the current May dates a history of missed checkpoints behind them.
What to watch
The important distinction is that this market resolves on an announcement by Trump, not on every development in the Gulf. A shipping headline, a military leak, or a diplomatic rumor may move prices, but the clean catalyst is a public statement that the U.S. blockade has been lifted.
That is why the May 15 market is now the pressure point. At roughly 15¢ for “Yes,” traders are saying the near-term announcement is unlikely. But a single Truth Social post, press conference, or White House statement could rewrite the market instantly.
The account to watch is the 17-2 buyer that put about $44k behind “No.” If it adds again, the anti-announcement side gets harder to ignore. If it starts selling, that may be the more interesting tell. You can follow the underlying trade on PolySpotter’s alert page or track the wallet directly at polyspotter.com/wallet/0xf39651f0addaad0221806d828197064b97feed0d.