Six markets settle today and five more headline the week. Here's where Polymarket's sharpest bettors are putting real money — and which side they're taking.
More than $63K across 22 trades has piled into whether Iran shuts its airspace by today, our highest-conviction market of the day. The flow leans Yes, but barely — the market sits near a coin flip at 53%.
View market →Money is light here, but it's one-sided: traders lean No on OpenAI releasing GPT-5.6 by today, with the market pricing roughly a 79% chance it doesn't happen.
View market →A single bet leans toward Mirra Andreeva winning the women's singles at the 2026 French Open (Roland Garros), in line with the market's 76% read on her.
View market →One trade leans No on Bitcoin closing above $62,000 today, matching a market that gives it only about a 19% shot.
View market →Money leans Yes on the 'Scary Movie' reboot clearing $52M in its opening weekend, where the market already implies an 84% chance it gets there.
View market →A bet leans No on Alexander Zverev winning the men's singles at the 2026 French Open (Roland Garros); the market gives him about a 35% chance.
View market →Over $20K leans Yes on the US and Iran reaching a permanent peace deal by June 15 — a notable contrarian stance, since the market only prices that outcome at 17%.
View market →Nearly $19K across 10 trades leans Yes on Israel shutting its airspace amid the Iran tensions, with the market sitting at 58%.
View market →This Knicks-Spurs game drew the most money of the week — nearly $294K over 63 trades — with the flow leaning slightly toward San Antonio in a near-even matchup priced at 47%.
View market →Money leans toward Belal Muhammad over Gabriel Bonfim in their UFC Fight Night welterweight main-card bout, with the market giving him a 58% edge.
View market →More than $120K poured into this League of Legends match between G2 Esports and Karmine Corp, with the flow firmly behind G2 to take Game 4 at a 69% implied price.
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