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June 11, 2026

Today's resolutions: Spurs favored, plus a long-shot US-Iran peace bet

Five markets resolve today, led by a $770K wall of money leaning toward the Spurs over the Knicks. We're also flagging the week's standout signals, including a contrarian bet on a US-Iran peace deal.

Resolving Today

NBA: sharp money backs Spurs over Knicks tonight

Leaning: Spurs (70% implied)

The biggest pool of the day, over $770K across 116 trades, leans toward the San Antonio Spurs beating the New York Knicks. The market prices the Spurs at 70%.

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MLB: smart money leans Angels at Astros

Leaning: Los Angeles Angels (57% implied)

In this MLB game, the flow tilts toward the Los Angeles Angels over the Houston Astros. It's close to a coin flip, with the Angels priced at 57%.

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World Cup: backing Mexico to beat South Africa

Leaning: Yes (69% implied)

At the FIFA World Cup, money favors Mexico to win its match against South Africa. The market gives Mexico about a 69% chance.

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Crypto: bets say Bitcoin won't hit $62K today

Leaning: No (23% implied)

On this daily crypto market, traders lean No, betting Bitcoin fails to reach $62,000 by day's end. That's a contrarian call against a market that mostly expects it to get there.

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ECB rates: contrarian bet on no change in June

Leaning: Yes (13% implied)

A single large bet leans toward the European Central Bank holding interest rates steady at its June meeting. That's a contrarian position the market prices at just 13%, with most expecting a move.

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Top This Week

Geopolitics: bet on a US-Iran peace deal by June 15

Leaning: Yes (17% implied)

This week's top signal: money leaning Yes on a permanent US-Iran peace deal landing by June 15. It's a long shot the market prices at only 17%, suggesting a trader who thinks the odds are mispriced.

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UFC: smart money on Belal Muhammad to beat Bonfim

Leaning: Belal Muhammad (58% implied)

In this UFC welterweight bout, the flow favors Belal Muhammad over Gabriel Bonfim. It's a slight edge the market puts at 58%.

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Dota 2: big money on Team Yandex in BLAST playoffs

Leaning: Team Yandex (55% implied)

The week's largest esports pool, over $212K, leans toward Team Yandex beating BetBoom Team in their Dota 2 BLAST Slam playoff series. The two sides are near even at 55%.

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League of Legends: G2 favored over Karmine Corp

Leaning: G2 Esports (69% implied)

In this League of Legends match, money backs G2 Esports to win Game 4 against Karmine Corp. The market prices G2 at 69%.

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Today's resolutions: Spurs favored, plus a long-shot US-Iran peace bet | PolySpotter