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June 13, 2026

Smart money fades the USA and Brazil at the World Cup

Here's where the sharpest bettors are leaning on the markets resolving today, plus the biggest money moves of the week. The standouts: traders are quietly betting against the USA and Brazil at soccer's World Cup, while a $770K wave landed on the Spurs.

Resolving Today

MLB: big money on Cubs vs. Giants

Leaning: Chicago Cubs (47% implied)

Nearly $200K landed on this MLB baseball game, with the heaviest bets favoring the Chicago Cubs to beat the San Francisco Giants — even as the market prices the Cubs as slight underdogs at 47%.

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World Cup: money backs Switzerland over Qatar

Leaning: Yes (83% implied)

Bettors put $177K behind Switzerland to beat Qatar at soccer's FIFA World Cup. The market makes Switzerland a heavy favorite at 83%.

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World Cup: sharps fade the USA vs. Paraguay

Leaning: No (28% implied)

Across 18 trades, the smart money leaned against the United States beating Paraguay at the FIFA World Cup. A USA win is priced at just 28%.

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World Cup: doubt on Brazil vs. Morocco

Leaning: No (42% implied)

Traders are betting against Brazil beating Morocco at soccer's World Cup, with a Brazil win priced at only 42% despite Brazil's favorite reputation.

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Tennis: money on Rakhimova to upset Raducanu

Leaning: Kamilla Rakhimova (31% implied)

At the WTA HSBC Championships, bettors backed underdog Kamilla Rakhimova to upset Britain's Emma Raducanu. Rakhimova is priced at 31% to win.

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NBA: money says Pistons miss the East Finals

Leaning: No (80% implied)

A single large bet leaned toward the Detroit Pistons not winning the NBA Eastern Conference Finals — an outcome the market prices at 80%.

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Top This Week

Geopolitics: bets lean toward Iran closing airspace

Leaning: Yes (53% implied)

Amid U.S.–Iran tensions, traders leaned slightly toward Iran closing its airspace, a potential sign of escalation. The market split close to even at 53% yes.

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NBA: heavy money on Spurs over the Knicks

Leaning: Spurs (70% implied)

This NBA game drew over $770K across 116 trades, with the smart money favoring the San Antonio Spurs to beat the New York Knicks at 70%.

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World Cup: money backs South Korea over Czechia

Leaning: Yes (82% implied)

Bettors backed South Korea to beat the Czech Republic at soccer's FIFA World Cup, where South Korea is a strong favorite at 82%.

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Esports: Counter-Strike money backs Spirit over Aurora

Leaning: Spirit (57% implied)

In the Counter-Strike 2 video game major IEM Cologne, bettors leaned toward Team Spirit over Aurora Gaming, pricing Spirit at 57% to win the best-of-three.

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Esports: League of Legends, money backs Hanwha over T1

Leaning: Hanwha Life Esports (53% implied)

In a League of Legends video game match, the smart money slightly favored Hanwha Life Esports over rival T1 to win Game 4, priced near a coin flip at 53%.

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Smart money fades the USA and Brazil at the World Cup | PolySpotter