Here's where the sharp money moved on Polymarket: the markets resolving today and the biggest signals from the past week. The standout is heavy skepticism on a US-Iran peace deal, alongside contrarian bets in the NBA and at the World Cup.
Traders narrowly favor the US and Iran announcing a new agreement or ceasefire extension by today, sitting just above a coin flip near 53%. Volume is thin, so read the conviction here as modest.
View market →Today's biggest pile of cash — over $370K across 97 trades — leans toward the San Antonio Spurs beating the New York Knicks, even though the Spurs are the underdog at roughly 44%.
View market →Nearly $250K is positioned on Côte d'Ivoire beating Ecuador at the FIFA World Cup. That's a notable bet given the market gives them only about a 28% chance — a contrarian longshot play.
View market →Smart money sides with Scotland to beat Haiti at the FIFA World Cup, pricing them a slight favorite around 55%. This is the strongest-scoring signal among today's games.
View market →Traders are positioned for Australia to fail to beat Turkey at the FIFA World Cup, with the 'no' side carrying about 54%. A handful of sizable trades drive this one.
View market →A single $1,000 wager backs Justin Gaethje as a heavy underdog, around 20%, against Ilia Topuria in this lightweight main-card fight. With one trade behind it, treat this as a very low-conviction signal.
View market →The week's strongest signal: over $350K leans toward no permanent US-Iran peace deal by June 15, with the 'no' side near 68%. Skepticism is the clear consensus.
View market →The week's largest market, over $770K across 116 trades, leaned hard on the San Antonio Spurs as roughly 70% favorites against the New York Knicks.
View market →Smart money leaned against the United States beating Paraguay at the FIFA World Cup, pricing the US as a roughly 28% longshot to win.
View market →In a Counter-Strike 2 match at the IEM Cologne Major, traders put over $400K behind Team Spirit to beat Aurora Gaming, pricing Spirit a slight favorite near 57%.
View market →In a League of Legends series, smart money narrowly favored Hanwha Life Esports over T1 in Game 4, sitting just above a coin flip near 53%.
View market →