Six markets resolve today, headlined by $1.7M of smart money leaning Yes on a permanent US-Iran peace deal. Below is where the sharp bettors are positioned now, plus the biggest plays from the past week.
The week's heaviest action — $1.7M across 266 trades — leans Yes (76% implied) that the US and Iran finalize a permanent peace deal by today. It's by far the highest-conviction market on the board.
View market →Nearly $1.5M is staked on Sweden's FIFA World Cup match against Tunisia, but at 51% implied the sharps see it as essentially a toss-up rather than a clear favorite.
View market →A handful of large bets ($496K across just three trades) lean Belgium (62% implied) to beat Egypt in their FIFA World Cup fixture today.
View market →On the UFC Freedom 250 main card, money backs Justin Gaethje (70% implied) to beat Ilia Topuria in their lightweight bout.
View market →A near coin-flip — bettors give Alex Pereira a slight edge (53% implied) over Ciryl Gane in their UFC Freedom 250 heavyweight fight.
View market →Smart money leans No (just 36% implied on Yes) that Iran shuts its airspace by the deadline, suggesting traders don't expect an escalation that grounds flights.
View market →Bettors leaned No (42% implied on Yes) on the US announcing a fresh Iran ceasefire extension by June 14, betting against a new deal landing on schedule.
View market →The week's biggest basketball play — $771K across 116 trades — favored the San Antonio Spurs (70% implied) to beat the New York Knicks.
View market →Despite the Netherlands' reputation, bettors leaned against a Dutch win (40% implied) in their FIFA World Cup clash with Japan, tilting toward Japan or a draw.
View market →In Counter-Strike's IEM Cologne Major, bettors backed Team Spirit (57% implied) to beat Aurora Gaming in their best-of-three, with $430K wagered.
View market →In a League of Legends series, sharps favored T1 (57% implied) to take Game 4 against rivals Gen.G — the week's highest-conviction esports market.
View market →