Six markets resolve today, spanning a UK by-election, World Cup soccer, tennis, and Bitcoin, plus a recap of the week's biggest bets. Here's where the sharp money is positioned and which way we lean.
Smart money is taking Andy Burnham to win the Makerfield by-election in the UK at just 28% implied — a long-shot, contrarian wager on a candidate the market expects to lose.
View market →Sharp money is on No, betting the text of the US-Iran agreement won't be published by the deadline. The No side sits around 66% implied, so the market leans toward the text staying under wraps for now.
View market →Colombia are heavy favorites against Uzbekistan, but $140K of smart money bought No at just 8% implied — a long-shot bet that Colombia fail to win this World Cup match outright.
View market →Smart money sides with Canada to beat Qatar, with the Yes side priced around 76% implied. The lean here is simply riding the favorite in this World Cup group match.
View market →In the Halle Open grass-court match, smart money backs Taylor Fritz to beat Fabian Marozsan, with Fritz priced near 83% implied. We lean Fritz alongside the money.
View market →Smart money is on Yes — Bitcoin finishing today above $64,000 — priced around 89% implied. The market sees little risk of a drop below that line by the close.
View market →The week's biggest bet by a mile: $2.7M of smart money bought No on Türkiye, wagering they wouldn't beat Australia. That No side was priced near a coin-flip 44% implied, so this was a conviction call against a narrow favorite.
View market →In the NBA matchup Knicks vs. Spurs, smart money backed the Spurs as underdogs at 44% implied — fading the favored Knicks in one of the week's most active markets.
View market →England were strong favorites against Croatia, yet smart money bought No at just 20% implied — a contrarian bet that England wouldn't win the match outright.
View market →Smart money sided with Scotland to beat Haiti, with the Yes side priced around 55% implied. The lean is Scotland, a slight favorite, in this World Cup match.
View market →In the League of Legends pro match Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (Game 4), smart money backed Hanwha Life to win, with their side priced around 53% implied — essentially a coin flip the sharps leaned into.
View market →