Here's where Polymarket's sharpest bettors are putting real money today — a busy World Cup slate, a bet that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is on his way out, and edges in WNBA, Dota 2, and Counter-Strike. Each leaning shows the exact side the smart money took and the price it's paying.
On the market for whether UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves office by today, the 'Yes, he's out' side is priced at 63% and that's where the sharp money sits. We lean Yes — Starmer gone.
View market →In this World Cup match between New Zealand and Egypt, smart money is on Egypt to win, with the Egypt-win side priced at 84%. We lean Egypt.
View market →France is the favorite over Iraq, but this is a spread bet: sharps took Iraq +5.5 — i.e. France not winning by six or more — at 89% implied. We lean toward Iraq keeping it close.
View market →Smart money is betting Austria does not win this World Cup match against Argentina, with the 'No' side priced at 81%. We lean Argentina.
View market →In this WNBA game, sharps back the Los Angeles Sparks to beat the New York Liberty, with the Sparks priced at 80%. We lean Sparks.
View market →In Game 1 of this Dota 2 esports series, smart money favors MOUZ over Yellow Submarine, with MOUZ priced at 67%. We lean MOUZ.
View market →Heavy volume on this World Cup match, where smart money slightly favors Uruguay not winning against Cape Verde — the 'No' side is priced at just 53%. A near coin-flip, leaning mildly against Uruguay.
View market →Despite Belgium's pedigree, sharps are betting they won't beat Iran in this World Cup match — the 'Belgium doesn't win' side sits at 71% implied. We lean against Belgium.
View market →This is a total-goals bet on the World Cup match between Tunisia and Japan: sharps took Over 3.5 goals, priced at 47%. We lean toward a high-scoring game.
View market →On the Spain vs Saudi Arabia World Cup match, smart money took the Under 4.5 total goals, priced at 42%. We lean toward fewer than five goals.
View market →In a best-of-three at the IEM Cologne Counter-Strike major playoffs, sharps back Team Falcons to beat Vitality, with Falcons priced at 66%. We lean Falcons.
View market →