Iran: big money bets the regime survives the month
Leaning: No (86% implied)
A single $50K bet leans No on Iran's government falling by today — that is, betting the regime holds — with the No side priced at 86%.
View market →June 30, 2026
Smart money's June 30 board: Morocco, Iran, and a Claude 5 bet
Six markets settle today, and the heaviest money is on World Cup soccer — Morocco to advance past the Netherlands tops the board. Here's where sharp bettors are leaning before the close, plus the week's most-traded calls.
Resolving Today
Russia-Ukraine: a long-shot wager on a June ceasefire
Leaning: Yes (14% implied)
Smart money bought Yes on a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire landing by today, a long shot the market prices at just 14%.
View market →World Cup: sharps favor Morocco to oust the Netherlands
Leaning: Morocco (52% implied)
The day's heaviest flow — $367K across 45 trades — backs Morocco to advance past the Netherlands in the FIFA World Cup, at 52% implied.
View market →World Cup: smart money doubts Norway beats Cote d'Ivoire
Leaning: No (55% implied)
Bettors lean No on Norway winning its World Cup match against Cote d'Ivoire today — favoring a draw or an Ivorian win — at 55% implied.
View market →NHL: smart money fades the Avalanche for the Cup
Leaning: No (61% implied)
An $80K bet leans No on the Colorado Avalanche winning the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup, with the No side priced at 61%.
View market →AI: smart money bets Claude 5 ships by today
Leaning: Yes (57% implied)
Bettors lean Yes that Anthropic releases Claude 5 by today's deadline, a near coin-flip the market prices at 57%.
View market →Top This Week
World Cup: big money backs Paraguay to upset Germany
Leaning: Paraguay (68% implied)
The week's most-traded market — 71 trades — leaned Paraguay to advance over Germany at the FIFA World Cup, at 68% implied.
View market →World Cup: sharps back Croatia to beat Ghana
Leaning: Yes (85% implied)
Heavy flow ($259K) backed Croatia to win its World Cup match against Ghana, the favored Yes side at 85% implied.
View market →World Cup: smart money bets Turkiye-USA won't draw
Leaning: No (41% implied)
Bettors leaned No on the Turkiye versus United States World Cup match ending in a draw, with the No side priced at 41%.
View market →World Cup: smart money bets on a high-scoring NZ-Belgium
Leaning: Over (60% implied)
Flow leaned Over 5.5 total goals in the New Zealand versus Belgium World Cup match, priced at 60%.
View market →WNBA: smart money leans Under in Sparks-Tempo total
Leaning: Under (50% implied)
$153K leaned Under 179.5 combined points in the WNBA game between the Los Angeles Sparks and Toronto Tempo, at 50% implied.
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