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July 6, 2026

Smart money this week: World Cup fades, Wimbledon, and a Bitcoin dip

Here's where the sharp money moved: two FIFA World Cup matches resolving today, plus the biggest bets of the week across Wimbledon tennis, Bitcoin, and League of Legends. Each event shows which side the smart money took and how the market priced it.

Resolving Today

World Cup: smart money fades England vs Mexico

Leaning: No (61% implied)

More than $130K went to the bet that England will NOT win its FIFA World Cup match against Mexico, with that 'no' side priced near 61% (so an England win sits around 39%). The lean is against England.

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World Cup: sharps lean against Spain vs Portugal

Leaning: No (49% implied)

In this FIFA World Cup match between Portugal and Spain, the smart money sided with Spain NOT winning, though it's essentially a coin flip with that side priced around 49%. A slight lean against Spain.

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Top This Week

Wimbledon women's tennis: smart money on Sofia Kenin

Leaning: Sofia Kenin (50% implied)

In this Wimbledon women's singles match between Amanda Anisimova and Sofia Kenin, the smart money backed Kenin to win, in a true toss-up priced near 50%. The lean is Kenin.

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Crypto: smart money bets Bitcoin dips to $57,500

Leaning: Yes (45% implied)

Traders backed 'yes' — that Bitcoin would dip to $57,500 during June — even though the market priced that outcome below even, around 45%. The lean is that the dip happens.

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League of Legends: sharps back Team Liquid vs Karmine Corp

Leaning: Team Liquid (86% implied)

In Game 3 of this League of Legends series between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid, the smart money piled onto Team Liquid as a heavy favorite priced near 86%. The lean is strongly Team Liquid.

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Smart money this week: World Cup fades, Wimbledon, and a Bitcoin dip | PolySpotter