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July 11, 2026

Sharp money: Holloway over McGregor, a fade on England, and World Cup edges

Today's board is heavy on combat sports and World Cup soccer. Here's where the sharp money is leaning before the action starts.

Resolving Today

Tennis: sharp money on Muchova over Noskova at Wimbledon

Leaning: Karolina Muchova (57% implied)

In this Wimbledon women's singles match, smart money is backing Karolina Muchova to beat Linda Noskova. Her side is priced around 57%.

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UFC: smart money backs Holloway over McGregor at UFC 329

Leaning: Max Holloway (65% implied)

Sharp bettors favor Max Holloway to defeat Conor McGregor in the welterweight main-card bout at UFC 329. Holloway's side sits near 65%.

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Soccer: sharp money fades England vs Norway at World Cup

Leaning: No (48% implied)

In the 'Will England win?' market for their World Cup match against Norway, smart money is on No — betting England fails to win outright (a draw or Norway win). That No side is priced around 48%.

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UFC: smart money on underdog Krylov vs Whittaker at 329

Leaning: Nikita Krylov (47% implied)

Smart money favors Nikita Krylov to upset Robert Whittaker in the light heavyweight prelim at UFC 329. Krylov is the backed side at roughly 47%.

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Top This Week

Soccer: sharp money bets Over 2.5 goals in Argentina-Switzerland

Leaning: Over (42% implied)

In the Argentina vs Switzerland World Cup match, sharp money is on Over 2.5 total goals — a bet on a higher-scoring game. The Over is priced around 42%.

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Soccer: smart money backs Argentina to beat Switzerland

Leaning: Yes (58% implied)

Smart money likes Argentina to win outright against Switzerland in their World Cup match, taking the Yes side at about 58%.

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Soccer: smart money bets Europe wins the 2026 World Cup

Leaning: Yes (84% implied)

In the market on which continent lifts the 2026 FIFA World Cup, sharp bettors are on Yes — a European (UEFA) nation to win it all — the heavily favored side at around 84%.

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Soccer: sharps bet against Canada finishing second in Group B

Leaning: No (57% implied)

In the market on whether Canada finishes second in Group B at the 2026 World Cup, smart money is on No — betting Canada does not take the runner-up spot. That side is priced near 57%.

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Sharp money: Holloway over McGregor, a fade on England, and World Cup edges | PolySpotter