Two France vs. Spain markets resolve today, and in both of them the money is on the side the market has priced as the underdog. Elsewhere this week, smart money leaned into Iran escalation and a 2026 Fed hike.
$104K across just two trades backs Spain to advance in this FIFA World Cup match against France, even though the market prices Spain at only 41%. We lean Spain, and it settles today.
View market →$20.6K over three trades says Yes on Kylian Mbappé scoring at least one goal in France vs. Spain, a side the market has at 45%. We lean Yes.
View market →Nine trades totaling $28K sit on Yes, that the US announces a blockade on Iran by July 31, with the market implying 56%. We lean Yes.
View market →Our highest-scoring signal of the week: $10.7K across three trades on No, meaning Strait of Hormuz shipping does not return to normal by July 15, with that side already priced at 69%. We lean No.
View market →The week's largest ticket, $143K across five trades, backs Under 2.5 total goals in England vs. Argentina at the FIFA World Cup, with Under implied at 59%. We lean Under.
View market →Two trades worth $90K land on No, that Iran does not close its airspace by July 15, a side the market already has at 79%. Size that large on the heavy favorite is a conviction bet, not a lottery ticket. We lean No.
View market →Eight trades and $43K on Yes for a Fed rate hike at some point in 2026, a side implied at 65%. It is the longest-dated call in today's digest, resolving in December. We lean Yes.
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