This week's sharpest bets clustered on a rare triple Fed pause, Europe to win the World Cup, and England failing to beat France. One League of Legends decider resolves today.
In this League of Legends Esports World Cup Group A best-of-three, G2 Esports face Dplus KIA. About $15K of smart money leans Dplus KIA at 59% implied, and it resolves today.
View market →On the Russia-Ukraine front, roughly $15K of smart money leans Yes at 88% implied that Russia captures Kostyantynivka in Ukraine. The market resolves by September 30.
View market →Smart money leans No at 89% implied that the US announces an end to its blockade of Iran by July 31 — the sharp read is the blockade stays in place.
View market →In the FIFA World Cup match between France and England, about $21K of smart money leans No at 74% implied on whether England wins — the sharp bet is England doesn't beat France on July 18.
View market →Smart money leans Yes at 84% implied that Europe (UEFA) wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup — the sharp bet is a European nation lifts the trophy.
View market →The week's biggest bet: nearly $45K of smart money leans Yes at 90% implied that the Fed pauses at all three of its April, June, and July decisions.
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