Six markets settle today, led by heavy flow on the Spain vs. Argentina World Cup match and its side markets. Below are the trades worth watching, plus the biggest positions taken across the past week.
The largest position on today's board — about $181k across 26 trades on the Spain -1.5 spread in Spain vs. Argentina. Smart money is on the Argentina side at 79% implied, betting Spain does not win by two or more.
View market →A single trade worth roughly $55k landed on the Chicago White Sox against the Toronto Blue Jays at 52% implied. Size, not consensus — but it's a coin-flip line someone was willing to push hard.
View market →In the Spain vs. Argentina player props, about $35k across 10 trades leans No on Lionel Messi scoring at least one goal, with No priced at 68% implied.
View market →Flow leans Yes on England finishing third at the 2026 World Cup, priced at 47% implied. The market resolves today, so this is a late call on where England lands.
View market →On the straight match market for Spain vs. Argentina, flow leans Spain to win at 42% implied — a bet against the favorite, and the highest-scoring signal on today's slate.
View market →In the best-of-five between BetBoom Team and PARIVISION at the Esports World Cup playoffs, money is on PARIVISION at 64% implied — siding with the favorite rather than hunting the upset.
View market →Roughly $47k leans Yes on China invading Taiwan by December 31, 2027, at 16% implied. A long-dated tail-risk bet rather than a call on anything imminent.
View market →Nine trades lean Yes on Iran announcing withdrawal from the US-Iran memorandum-of-understanding negotiations before July 31, with Yes at 32% implied — a contrarian position on the talks collapsing.
View market →Roughly $95k leans No on a nation that has never won the World Cup taking the 2026 title, with No at 80% implied. The week's second-largest position, and it resolves tomorrow.
View market →Flow leans No on England winning the 2026 World Cup, with No priced at 89% implied. This carried the highest signal score of the week by a wide margin.
View market →About $43k across eight trades leans Yes on the Federal Reserve raising rates in 2026, with Yes at 65% implied — a bet that policy tightens before December.
View market →