Five events drew the week's notable flow, concentrated in Fed policy and US–Iran escalation risk. Here's where the money went and which side it took.
About $15k across 5 trades leans Yes — the US announces a blockade on Iran by August 31 — with Yes at 60% implied. Notable because it prices a formal escalation step as more likely than not.
View market →A single $10k trade took the No side — Strait of Hormuz traffic does not return to normal by August 31 — at 89% implied. Size in one clip, and it lines up with the other Iran markets pricing sustained disruption.
View market →The week's largest flow at roughly $45k over 6 trades, all leaning Yes: the Fed pauses at all three of its April, June and July decisions. Yes is already priced at 90%, so this is conviction on a favorite rather than a contrarian call.
View market →Roughly $37k across 7 trades landed on this market, our highest-scoring signal of the week. The flow leans No — no Fed rate hike by the July 2026 meeting — with No priced at 80%.
View market →About $10k over 3 trades backed the No side — Iran does not fully close its airspace by August 31 — at a near-coin-flip 52% implied. The near-even pricing makes this the week's most contested geopolitical call.
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