MLB: smart money leans Over in Dodgers-Phillies
Leaning: Over (51% implied)
About $21K flowed into the total for today's Dodgers vs. Phillies game, with the money on the Over 8.5 runs at a near-coinflip 51% implied. Resolves today.
View market →July 21, 2026
Two picks resolve today, plus a contrarian Fed bet for the week
Two markets settle today — an MLB total and an ATP tennis match — and both drew sharp money. Further out, we're tracking where smart money landed on the House, the Fed, Ukraine, and US-Iran talks.
Resolving Today
Tennis: sharps back Collignon over Altmaier
Leaning: Raphael Collignon (61% implied)
At the ATP Generali Open, one $12.9K bet sides with Raphael Collignon to beat Daniel Altmaier, pricing him a 61% favorite. Match resolves today.
View market →Top This Week
2026 Midterms: money backs Democrats to win House
Leaning: Yes (85% implied)
A $30K position backs the Democratic Party to control the House after the 2026 midterms — the Yes side, which the market already prices at 85%. Resolves in November.
View market →Fed: contrarian bet on a September rate hike
Leaning: Yes (30% implied)
Across six trades and ~$17K, smart money is taking the against-the-grain side that the Fed raises rates 25 bps at its September meeting — a hike the market puts at just 30%.
View market →Ukraine: money says Zelenskyy stays through 2026
Leaning: No (90% implied)
A $14K bet lands on No — Zelenskyy remaining Ukraine's president through the end of 2026 — an outcome the market views as 90% likely. Resolves December 31.
View market →US-Iran: smart money bets no talks by July 31
Leaning: No (79% implied)
Sharp bettors lean No on a US-Iran diplomatic meeting happening by July 31, a No side priced at 79%. With the deadline days away, ~$10K across four trades says it doesn't happen.
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