Today's PolySpotter digest: one Iran airspace market resolves tonight, plus the week's biggest smart-money positions across US-Iran geopolitics, UK politics, and the Fed.
About $10.6K of smart money across 6 bets leans No, wagering Iran won't fully close its airspace before tonight's deadline. The No side is priced at 86%, implying only a ~14% chance of a full closure.
View market →This novelty market asks whether China invades Taiwan before the video game GTA VI launches. Smart money leans No — no invasion first — but at a 50% price it's effectively a coin flip, on ~$53K across 3 bets.
View market →Across 11 bets and ~$28K, smart money is buying No — betting there's no permanent US-Iran peace deal by July 31. That No side is priced at just 14%, a cheap contrarian position against a market that expects a deal.
View market →In UK politics, smart money leans Yes that Keir Starmer is out by July 31, with the Yes side priced at 79%. Just one large bet drove this signal, so read it as a single conviction position rather than a crowd.
View market →Smart money leans Yes that Donald Trump announces the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, with the Yes side priced at 58%. About $11K traded across 5 bets.
View market →Smart money leans Yes that the Fed holds rates steady across all three of its next decisions (April, June, July), a parlay the market already prices at 90%. Roughly $45K traded across 6 bets.
View market →