Here's where Polymarket's sharpest bettors are putting real money right now — from a possible US blockade on Iran to tonight's baseball. Below, the biggest flows of the week plus every market resolving today.
In tonight's Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets game, roughly $22K of smart money is betting the combined score stays under 7.5 runs — a market split right at 50%.
View market →One large bet backs the Philadelphia Phillies to beat the New York Yankees today, even though the market prices Philadelphia as a slight underdog at 48%.
View market →Smart money favors the Milwaukee Brewers to beat the Colorado Rockies today, in line with the market's 67% implied odds for Milwaukee.
View market →The week's biggest flow — about $28K across 9 trades — leans Yes on the US announcing a blockade on Iran by July 31. The market prices that outcome at 56%.
View market →Smart money leans Yes on a US-Iran diplomatic meeting taking place by July 31, an outcome the market puts at 64%. It's a notable counterpoint to the blockade bet above.
View market →In the 2026 Brazilian presidential race, smart money is on No — that Flavio Bolsonaro does not win — with the market putting that at 76%. This one resolves in October.
View market →Smart money leans Yes that Bitcoin reaches $65,000 before July ends — essentially a coin flip at 51% implied. Resolves August 1.
View market →Smart money leans Yes on the Fed raising rates by its September 2026 meeting, an outcome the market prices at 57%.
View market →