Nothing resolves today, so here's where the biggest money is leaning across this week's top markets — from Middle East diplomacy and Ukraine's presidency to an F1 championship and an Ethereum price call.
About $21.6K across nine trades backs Yes — that Iran announces its withdrawal from the US MOU negotiations by July 31. The market rates that outcome at just 32%, so this is a contrarian call that talks collapse.
View market →A single $14K bet lands on No — that Zelenskyy won't leave the Ukrainian presidency by the end of 2026. That side is priced at 90%, so the money is siding with him staying in office.
View market →Seven trades totaling about $11.3K take the No side — that the Israel-Iran ceasefire won't hold through July 31. The market prices that side at 37%, so the base case still favors the ceasefire holding, but the smart money is fading it.
View market →Four trades worth about $13.9K back Yes on Mercedes taking the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors' Championship. The market already prices that at 87%, so the smart money is riding a strong favorite rather than fading it.
View market →Three trades worth about $12.4K take No on Ethereum dipping to $1,400 before the month ends. The market puts that No side at 69%, betting the drop doesn't happen.
View market →