US blockade on Iran: smart money leans yes
Leaning: Yes (56% implied)
Sharp bettors backed the Yes side at a 56% implied price — betting the US will formally announce a blockade on Iran by July 31.
View market →July 31, 2026
Smart money crowds the Iran board — plus an MLB Under and a CS2 pick
Today's sharp flow is heavy on US-Iran geopolitics — a blockade, peace talks, airspace, and a ceasefire some are betting won't hold — rounded out by an MLB total and a Counter-Strike playoff pick. This week's board leans the same way, with contrarian money fading a nuclear deal and Hormuz recovery.
Resolving Today
US-Iran peace talks: sharps back another round
Leaning: Yes (64% implied)
Smart money bought Yes at 64% that the US and Iran hold another diplomatic meeting by July 31.
View market →Israel-Iran ceasefire: smart money bets it breaks
Leaning: No (37% implied)
Contrarian flow: sharps bought the No side, priced at 37%, betting the Israel-Iran ceasefire won't hold through July 31 even as the market leans toward it continuing.
View market →MLB: smart money takes the Under in Yankees-Cubs
Leaning: Under (61% implied)
One large bet took the Under on the 10.5 combined-runs total for the MLB game between the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs, at a 61% implied price.
View market →Iran airspace: smart money bets it stays open
Leaning: No (67% implied)
Smart money leaned to the No side at 67% — betting Iran does not fully close its airspace by July 31.
View market →Counter-Strike: smart money backs Spirit over Liquid
Leaning: Spirit (75% implied)
In the BLAST Bounty Playoffs Counter-Strike match, sharp money backed Spirit to beat Team Liquid in the best-of-three, at a 75% implied price.
View market →Top This Week
US-Iran nuclear deal: smart money bets no deal
Leaning: No (88% implied)
Sharps leaned to the No side at 88% — betting the US and Iran don't reach a final nuclear deal by September 30.
View market →Strait of Hormuz: sharps bet traffic stays snarled
Leaning: No (89% implied)
Smart money bought No at 89%, betting shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz won't return to normal by August 31.
View market →F1: smart money backs Mercedes for constructors' title
Leaning: Yes (87% implied)
Smart money took the Yes side at 87% that Mercedes wins the 2026 F1 Constructors' Championship.
View market →Fed: smart money bets on zero rate cuts in 2026
Leaning: Yes (89% implied)
Sharps leaned Yes at 89% on whether the Fed makes no rate cuts in 2026 — a bet on zero cuts this year.
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