August 3, 2026

Smart money: Israel-Iran ceasefire holds today, and the Fed may move in September

Two markets resolve today and one big call is building toward September. Here's where the sharp money is leaning right now.

Resolving Today

Smart money bets Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through today

Leaning: Yes (70% implied)

On whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire lasts through August 3, the smart money is on Yes — that it holds — with that side priced around 70%. About $23K flowed across 7 trades leaning the same way.

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Tennis: sharps back Landaluce over Mejia at National Bank Open

Leaning: Martin Landaluce (70% implied)

In this ATP National Bank Open match between Nicolas Mejia and Martin Landaluce, the smart money favors Landaluce to win, with his side priced near 70%. Roughly $12K came in across 3 trades.

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Top This Week

Smart money leans to a September Fed rate change

Leaning: No (56% implied)

On whether the Fed leaves rates unchanged after its September meeting, the smart money is on No — betting the Fed actually moves rates rather than holding — with that side priced at 56%. About $25K backed the call across 2 trades.

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