Two MLB games resolve today, while this week's biggest bets span a Supreme Court retirement, a South Carolina Senate primary, the Strait of Hormuz, the Premier League, and the Fed. Here's which side the sharp money is taking on each.
In today's MLB game between the Athletics and the Cincinnati Reds, the sharp bet is on the Reds — but only barely, at a near-coin-flip 55% implied. A single large position (~$44k) drove the signal.
View market →Today's MLB matchup pits the Washington Nationals against the Philadelphia Phillies, and the money sides with the Phillies at 70% implied. Several large bets landed on the same side.
View market →Smart money is buying Yes on Justice Samuel Alito announcing his retirement by December 31, 2026 — a contrarian call priced at just 12%, meaning the market sees it as very unlikely. The interest is a sharp taking the cheap side.
View market →In the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary, resolving August 11, smart money backs Yes on Darline Graham Nordone winning the nomination, priced at 71%. The bet leans toward her taking it.
View market →On whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to normal by August 31, smart money is firmly on No, priced at 89% — a bet that the Iran oil chokepoint stays disrupted. Several large trades line up on that side.
View market →On the 2026-27 English Premier League title, smart money is betting No on Manchester City — that they won't win it — priced at 71%. A single ~$50k position anchors the call.
View market →The market strongly expects the Fed to stand pat: smart money backs Yes on 'no rate cuts in 2026' at 89% implied. In plain terms, the bet is that Jerome Powell's Fed makes zero cuts this year.
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