Here's where Polymarket's sharp money is positioned — the markets resolving today plus the biggest bets of the week. Each event below names the side the smart money took and how the market prices it.
The question is whether the US announces an end to its blockade of Iran by today's deadline. Sharp bettors are on No, priced at 66% implied — a bet that no such announcement comes.
View market →An ATP National Bank Open match between Tallon Griekspoor and Matteo Arnaldi. Smart money favors Griekspoor to win, at 60% implied.
View market →A Leagues Cup soccer match between Charlotte FC and Atlas FC. Smart money leans toward Charlotte winning, though it's near a coin flip at 49% implied.
View market →Russia's parliamentary election, on which party gains the most seats. Sharp money backs United Russia — the party of Vladimir Putin — to come out on top, at 69% implied.
View market →On whether Hamas agrees to disarm by December 31. Smart money took the contrarian No side at 37% implied, betting Hamas won't lay down its arms.
View market →Whether the Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged after its September 2026 meeting. Smart money leans Yes — no change — at 51% implied, essentially a toss-up.
View market →A UFC Fight Night featherweight bout between Miles Johns and Jessie Rosas. Smart money backs Rosas, the less-favored fighter at 44% implied.
View market →On whether Barcelona wins Spain's 2026-27 La Liga title. Smart money leans Yes at 54% implied.
View market →