UFC: smart money on underdog Jessie Rosas
Leaning: Jessie Rosas (44% implied)
In this UFC Fight Night featherweight bout, smart money is on Jessie Rosas over Miles Johns — notable because Rosas is priced as the underdog at 44% implied.
View market →August 8, 2026
Smart money today: a UFC underdog, MLB run totals, and a $600k Man City fade
Five markets resolve today and five more pulled the week's biggest informed money. Here's where the sharp bettors are positioned and which side they're taking.
Resolving Today
MLB: sharps take the Under in Guardians-White Sox
Leaning: Under (57% implied)
Sharp money is backing the Under on total runs in the Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox game, with Under 8.5 priced at 57% implied.
View market →UFC: sharps back Over on da Silva Lopes-Sutherland
Leaning: Over (51% implied)
In the UFC Fight Night heavyweight bout between Henrique da Silva Lopes and Louie Sutherland, smart money leans Over 0.5 rounds at 51% implied — betting the fight lasts beyond the opening minutes rather than a quick finish.
View market →Tennis: smart money on Rafael Jodar at National Bank Open
Leaning: Rafael Jodar (53% implied)
At the ATP National Bank Open, sharp money favors Rafael Jodar over Jiri Lehecka, with Jodar priced at 53% implied.
View market →MLB: sharps take the Over in Athletics-Red Sox
Leaning: Over (56% implied)
Smart money is on the Over for total runs in the Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox game, with Over 8.5 priced at 56% implied.
View market →Top This Week
Geopolitics: smart money bets no U.S. invasion of Iran
Leaning: No (88% implied)
On whether the U.S. invades Iran before 2027, smart money sits firmly on No — the No side is priced at 88% implied, betting an invasion won't happen.
View market →2026 Senate: smart money leans to Democratic control
Leaning: Yes (44% implied)
On which party controls the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms, smart money leans toward the Democrats taking control — the Yes side is priced at 44% implied, still the underdog.
View market →South Carolina GOP Senate primary: sharps back Darline Graham Nordone
Leaning: Yes (71% implied)
In South Carolina's Republican Senate primary, sharp money backs Darline Graham Nordone to win the nomination, with Yes priced at 71% implied.
View market →Premier League: smart money fades Man City for 2026-27 title
Leaning: No (71% implied)
Despite over $600k in flow, smart money is fading Manchester City in the 2026-27 English Premier League title race — the No side (City doesn't win) is priced at 71% implied.
View market →Poker: smart money bets against Lauri Saaskilahti at WSOP
Leaning: No (73% implied)
In the 2026 World Series of Poker Main Event, smart money bets against Lauri Saaskilahti winning it, with No priced at 73% implied.
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