Tennis: smart money backs Rybakina over Samsonova
Leaning: Elena Rybakina (75% implied)
At the National Bank Open, the sharp side is on Elena Rybakina to beat Liudmila Samsonova, with her win priced at 75% implied.
View market →August 9, 2026
Rybakina favored today; smart money doubts a US-Iran ceasefire
Two National Bank Open tennis matches resolve today, and this week's sharpest money is clustered in geopolitics and US politics — from an Iran ceasefire deadline to the 2026 midterms.
Resolving Today
Tennis: sharps lean Griekspoor past Merida Aguilar
Leaning: Tallon Griekspoor (56% implied)
In another National Bank Open match, smart money favors Tallon Griekspoor over Daniel Merida Aguilar, though only slightly at 56% implied.
View market →Top This Week
US midterms: smart money leans Democratic sweep
Leaning: Yes (46% implied)
On the 2026 midterms, the sharp side leans toward Democrats winning both the Senate and House, a bet priced at 46% implied.
View market →Iran: smart money bets Mojtaba Khamenei stays unseen
Leaning: No (77% implied)
Smart money is betting Iran's Mojtaba Khamenei will not be seen in public by December 31, with the No side priced at 77% implied.
View market →US-Iran ceasefire by Aug 14 looks like a coin flip
Leaning: No (50% implied)
Smart money leans against an effective US-Iran ceasefire by August 14, with the No side priced at an even 50% implied.
View market →SCOTUS: sharps take longshot on Alito retirement
Leaning: Yes (12% implied)
Smart money is backing a longshot that Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito announces his retirement by year-end, a Yes bet priced at just 12% implied.
View market →Fed: smart money doubts a September rate hike
Leaning: No (49% implied)
The sharp side leans toward no Fed rate hike by the September 2026 meeting, with the No side priced at 49% implied.
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