← All digests
August 10, 2026

Sharp money today: Swiatek favored, an underdog Blue Jays bet, and a Rubio 2028 fade

Four markets resolve today and five more drew notable money this week. Here's where the biggest, sharpest bets are leaning — and which side they took.

Resolving Today

Tennis: sharps back Iga Swiatek at National Bank Open

Leaning: Iga Swiatek (74% implied)

Roughly $191K flowed into the National Bank Open match between Diana Shnaider and Iga Swiatek, with the smart money on Swiatek at 74% implied. It's the heaviest-funded market resolving today.

View market →

MLB: money on the Braves over the Mets

Leaning: Atlanta Braves (58% implied)

In the MLB game New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves, over $41K leaned toward Atlanta at 58% implied. A modest favorite, but the flow was one-sided.

View market →

MLB: sharps take underdog Blue Jays over Red Sox

Leaning: Toronto Blue Jays (39% implied)

The MLB matchup Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays drew a contrarian bet on Toronto, priced at just 39% implied. Smart money siding with the underdog is worth a look.

View market →

Tennis: Learner Tien favored at National Bank Open

Leaning: Learner Tien (71% implied)

In the ATP National Bank Open match Learner Tien vs Thiago Agustin Tirante, the money backed Tien at 71% implied — a clear but not overwhelming favorite.

View market →

Top This Week

Politics: smart money fades Rubio for 2028 GOP nod

Leaning: No (73% implied)

On whether Marco Rubio wins the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, the sharp money is on No at 73% implied — a bet against Rubio landing the nomination.

View market →

Geopolitics: bettors doubt Strait of Hormuz returns to normal

Leaning: No (82% implied)

On whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to normal by September 30, the money leans No at 82% implied — pricing in continued disruption at the Iran oil chokepoint.

View market →

MLB: sharps bet the over in Astros vs. Giants

Leaning: Over (46% implied)

On the total-runs line for the MLB game Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants (set at 8.5), the smart money took the Over at 46% implied — a slight underdog bet on a high-scoring game, and this week's most active MLB market.

View market →

Soccer: money says Vinicius Junior stays at Real Madrid

Leaning: Yes (82% implied)

This week's most-traded market, at 11 trades: on Vinicius Junior's future, bettors lean Yes — he stays at Real Madrid — at 82% implied.

View market →

Finance: bettors doubt GameStop acquires eBay

Leaning: No (89% implied)

On whether GameStop acquires eBay, the smart money is firmly on No at 89% implied — a strong lean against the deal happening.

View market →
Sharp money today: Swiatek favored, an underdog Blue Jays bet, and a Rubio 2028 fade | PolySpotter