Two National Bank Open tennis matches resolve today, and this week's sharpest flow spans a Fed rate call, the Strait of Hormuz, a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, LaLiga, and UFC 330. Here's where the smart money is leaning.
In the National Bank Open match between Rafael Jodar and Arthur Fils, the smart money sided with Fils even though the market prices him as the underdog at 44% implied. It's a contrarian call backed by roughly $40K in flow.
View market →Ben Shelton faces Jakub Mensik at the National Bank Open, and the smart money is on Shelton, priced as a slight favorite at 56% implied.
View market →This market asks whether the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged after its September meeting. The smart money leans Yes — a hold — at 55% implied, and it drew the strongest signal of the week.
View market →On whether Strait of Hormuz shipping returns to normal by August 31, the smart money is firmly on No at 84% implied, betting the disruption around Iran persists.
View market →The market asks if Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026. The smart money says No at 68% implied — betting no deal lands this year.
View market →On whether Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA championship, the smart money leans Yes, backing Barcelona as a narrow 54% favorite.
View market →In the UFC 330 welterweight prelim between Chidi Njokuani and Joel Álvarez, the smart money is on Álvarez at 70% implied.
View market →