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August 13, 2026

Where the smart money's leaning: Cincinnati tennis, EWC Counter-Strike, US-Iran

Nine markets pulling in sharp money right now — Cincinnati Open tennis, Esports World Cup Counter-Strike, and a US-Iran ceasefire deadline. Here's where the informed bets are landing and which side they're taking.

Resolving Today

Tennis: sharps back Ella Seidel in Cincinnati qualifying

Leaning: Ella Seidel (62% implied)

Cincinnati Open qualifying: the smart money leans Ella Seidel over Nadia Podoroska, with her side priced at 62% implied. Around $23K flowed across seven trades.

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Tennis: smart money on underdog Svrcina in Cincinnati qualifying

Leaning: Dalibor Svrcina (40% implied)

In Cincinnati Open qualifying, sharps back Dalibor Svrcina against Mark Lajal even though his side sits at just 40% implied — a contrarian lean on the underdog worth noting.

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Tennis: sharps favor Kasatkina over Sonmez in Cincinnati

Leaning: Daria Kasatkina (59% implied)

Cincinnati Open main draw: the smart money leans Daria Kasatkina past Zeynep Sonmez, her side priced at 59% implied. It's a single trade, but a sizable one at about $11.6K.

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Counter-Strike: sharps back G2 vs BIG at Esports World Cup

Leaning: G2 (64% implied)

In the Esports World Cup Counter-Strike group stage, the smart money favors G2 over BIG in their best-of-three, with G2 priced at 64% implied. It's the busiest pool in the digest at roughly $60K.

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Counter-Strike: sharps lean FaZe vs Legacy at Esports World Cup

Leaning: FaZe (51% implied)

Esports World Cup Counter-Strike group stage: the smart money slightly favors FaZe over Legacy in their best-of-three, with FaZe priced at 51% implied — essentially a coin flip.

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Top This Week

US-Iran ceasefire deadline splits the smart money

Leaning: No (50% implied)

On whether the US and Iran hold an effective ceasefire by August 14, the smart money leans No, with the No side priced at 50% implied — a genuine coin flip either way.

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Supreme Court: smart money bets Alito stays put

Leaning: No (90% implied)

On whether Justice Samuel Alito announces his retirement by December 31, 2026, the smart money leans No — and heavily, with the No side priced at 90% implied.

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Brazil election: smart money backs Vilela for Goias governor

Leaning: Yes (89% implied)

In the race for governor of Goias, Brazil, the smart money leans Yes on Daniel Vilela winning, his side priced at 89% implied.

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Tennis: sharps back Ben Shelton at National Bank Open

Leaning: Ben Shelton (70% implied)

At the National Bank Open, the smart money leans Ben Shelton over Brandon Nakashima, his side priced at 70% implied. It's the largest pool in this digest at about $118K across three trades.

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Where the smart money's leaning: Cincinnati tennis, EWC Counter-Strike, US-Iran | PolySpotter