Five markets resolve today and four larger positions are building for the week ahead. Here's where Polymarket's sharpest money is leaning and why.
In this MLB game, smart money leans the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers, priced at 54% implied — close to a coin flip. A single large trade drove roughly $17K of the interest.
View market →In the Cincinnati Open tennis match between Lois Boisson and Belinda Bencic, smart money strongly favors Bencic at 79% implied. A confident, one-directional read on a clear favorite.
View market →This Cincinnati Open match between Jelena Ostapenko and Magdalena Frech is a genuine toss-up, with smart money leaning Ostapenko at exactly 50% implied. The pick-em pricing makes the flow worth watching.
View market →On the UFC 330 main card, smart money backs Mackenzie Dern to beat Gillian Robertson, priced at 64% implied. A moderate favorite the sharp flow is siding with.
View market →In this League of Legends LCS regular-season series, smart money leans Shopify Rebellion over Dignitas at 64% implied. A best-of-three where the flow favors the underdog-priced side turning it into a solid lean.
View market →On whether Hamas agrees to disarm by December 31, smart money is on 'Yes' at 40% implied — leaning toward a deal the broader market still prices as unlikely. A contrarian bet on progress in Gaza.
View market →Smart money leans 'No' at 68% implied on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31 — betting the war grinds on into next year rather than ending with a deal.
View market →Smart money leans 'Yes' at 55% implied on Harry Kane winning the 2026 Ballon d'Or, soccer's top individual award. One of the week's largest positions at roughly $20K.
View market →In the Counter-Strike 2 EWC 2026 tournament, smart money leans 'No' at 81% implied on Team Spirit winning the title — betting another team takes the trophy despite Spirit's pedigree.
View market →