Five events drew notable flow this week, from the war in Ukraine to a Fed rate decision and a Dota 2 playoff series. One market resolves today.
A single $13K bet landed on Mirra Andreeva to beat Marta Kostyuk at the Cincinnati Open, with her side priced at 54% — essentially a coin flip the market hasn't picked apart. It resolves today, so the read gets settled fast.
View market →The week's heaviest flow by far — about $118K across seven trades — backed Yes on Russia capturing the Ukrainian city of Kostyantynivka before December 31, already priced at 87%. Traders are paying up for an outcome the market treats as near-settled, which usually means they see the remaining doubt as overstated.
View market →A single $13K bet says the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged at its September meeting, a side the market prices at just 45%. That's a contrarian call against the majority expectation of a move.
View market →About $13K across three trades backed Yes on the US-Iran ceasefire lasting through August 31, with that side at 86%. Traders are leaning into the ceasefire holding rather than fading it.
View market →Two trades totaling $20K went to Yes on Harry Kane winning this year's Ballon d'Or, with his side priced at 55%. It's a favorite, but a narrow one, and the flow is one-directional.
View market →Roughly $48K over four trades went to Team Yandex in their best-of-three against Team Liquid at The International playoffs, with Yandex at 47% — the slight underdog side. We lean Yandex; the series resolves tomorrow.
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