Nothing resolves today, so this week's picks are all longer-dated and geopolitical: two Russian election questions, China-Taiwan, and Gulf shipping. The biggest position by far is $150,000 on who wins the most seats in Russia's parliament.
Three trades totaling $150,000 back United Russia to gain the most seats in the Russian parliamentary election, with that side priced at 69%. It is the week's largest and highest-scoring position, and we lean the same way: yes, United Russia takes the most seats. Resolves September 20.
View market →A single $25,000 trade takes the No side on United Russia winning every region — that side is priced at 45%, so the market still gives a clean sweep the edge. We lean No: at least one region goes elsewhere. Resolves September 20.
View market →One $17,000 trade sits on the No side of China invading Taiwan by December 31, 2027, with No priced at 86% — the market implies roughly a 14% chance of an invasion. We lean No: no invasion before the deadline.
View market →A $13,400 trade takes the Yes side on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, priced at 46% — close to a coin flip, so the buyer is paying little for the upside. We lean Yes: traffic normalizes by year-end.
View market →