Five markets resolve today — four MLB and soccer matchups plus a Serie-A-adjacent one — where large bets landed on one side. The week's biggest flow sits in geopolitics and one long-running casting market.
About $56.8k moved across four trades on the Over in St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies (O/U 7.5), the largest flow of anything resolving today. The market has it as a coin flip at 50% implied, so the money is taking a side the price isn't.
View market →A single trade worth roughly $15.3k landed on the Milwaukee Brewers to beat the Atlanta Braves, priced at 55% implied. One-ticket conviction at that size is what makes it worth watching; we lean Milwaukee.
View market →Three trades totaling about $14.8k backed the Houston Astros against the Athletics at 62% implied. Nothing contrarian here — the flow is stacking on the favorite rather than fading it.
View market →One trade of roughly $14.2k bet Yes on Juventus FC winning against Frosinone Calcio, with Yes at 67% implied. We lean Juventus, in line with where the money went.
View market →Two trades totaling about $11.6k took Yes on Beşiktaş JK winning their Süper Lig match against Alanyaspor, priced at 55% implied. Close to a toss-up on price, and the flow picked Beşiktaş.
View market →The week's heaviest flow — roughly $118.4k across seven trades — went Yes on Russia capturing Kostyantynivka in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, already priced at 87% implied. Buyers are paying up on a heavy favorite rather than looking for a cheap fade, which is usually a sign of confidence in the timeline.
View market →A single trade of about $24.7k took the No side of whether Mojtaba Khamenei is seen in public by December 31 — a bet that he does not appear — with No at 77% implied. We lean with it: no public appearance.
View market →Two trades worth about $65.9k took No on "no one announced as next James Bond" — in plain terms, a bet that a next Bond actor is announced by December 31 — with that No side priced at 74% implied. Large size on a casting market that has sat unresolved for a while.
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