Three markets resolve today, and five more drew the heaviest smart-money flow this week. Here's where the size went and which side we lean.
About $24k across seven trades landed on Hugo Gaston against Guido Justo in US Open ATP qualifying, with Gaston's side priced at 83%. We lean Gaston, and the match resolves today.
View market →Six trades worth roughly $12.7k backed Yunchaokete Bu over Rio Noguchi in US Open ATP qualifying, with Bu at 73%. We lean Bu; it settles today.
View market →One trade of about $11.1k bought West Ham United to win their EFL Cup match against Southampton at an underdog price of 37%. We lean West Ham, with the result in later today.
View market →A single $22.4k trade took the Yes side — Russia capturing all of Kostyantynivka by December 31 — in a market split near even at 55%. We lean Yes, though this one runs to the end of the year.
View market →Roughly $15.1k across five trades bought Yes on the US announcing a blockade on Iran by August 31, with that side priced at 60%. We lean Yes, and the deadline is days away.
View market →Three trades totaling about $13.8k took the No side at 87% — betting Strait of Hormuz traffic does not return to normal by August 31. We lean No, in line with a market that already sees little chance of a return to normal.
View market →About $13.7k across three trades bought No — no permanent US-Iran peace deal by August 31 — at a 25% price, a contrarian fade of a market that mostly expects a deal to land. We lean No, and this is the highest-scoring alert of the week.
View market →A single trade of roughly $110k, the largest position in this digest, took No on Brentford winning against Leeds United, with that side at 65%. We lean against a Brentford win when the Premier League match plays on August 30.
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