Three matches settle today across MLB, Serie A and the Saudi Pro League, plus the week's biggest positions in geopolitics and UFC. Here's where the notable money went and which side it took.
A single $20.8k trade backed the New York Yankees against the Boston Red Sox at a 60% implied price — one of the largest single-ticket bets in today's slate. We lean Yankees, resolving this evening.
View market →A $15.9k position took the No side on AC Milan winning versus Venezia FC, priced at 34% implied — meaning the market still favors a Milan win and this bet is going against it. We lean with the fade: no Milan win.
View market →Two trades totaling $12.0k took the Over on 3.5 goals in Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club, at a coin-flip 51% implied. The lean is Over — a high-scoring match.
View market →The week's largest position by size — $24.5k across four trades — took No on Friedrich Merz leaving as Chancellor of Germany before 2027, at 83% implied for No. We lean No: he stays through the year.
View market →A single $15.1k trade took No on an Iranian leadership change by December 31, priced at 84% implied for that side. We lean No — no change at the top of Iran's leadership before year end.
View market →Three trades totaling $10.4k bought Yes on the Israel-Iran ceasefire continuing through August 31, at 64% implied. We lean Yes — the ceasefire holds through month's end.
View market →This week's highest-scoring alert: three trades worth $10.3k on No for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by August 31, at 87% implied for that side. We lean No — no withdrawal before the deadline.
View market →The single biggest trade of the week, $44.9k, backed Sumudaerji against Alex Perez in the flyweight main card bout at UFC Fight Night, at 66% implied. We lean Sumudaerji, with the fight resolving overnight.
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