Six markets resolve today, and five more carry the week's heaviest smart-money flow. Here's where the money went and the price it paid.
The largest position resolving today: $58.6k across five trades on the No side of FC Augsburg vs. FC Schalke 04 — meaning Augsburg does not win — priced at 57% for that side. We lean with them: no Augsburg win.
View market →$53.2k across nine trades — the busiest book of the day — backs Manchester United to beat Ipswich Town in the Premier League, with a Yes priced at 70%. We lean Manchester United.
View market →A single $16.0k trade backs SSC Napoli to beat Como 1907, with that Yes side priced at just 37%. It's one conviction bet on the cheaper outcome rather than a crowd, and we lean Napoli with it.
View market →$15.1k over two trades in the Argentina Primera División backs CA River Plate to win at CA Banfield, with a Yes at 56%. We lean River Plate.
View market →$10.4k across five trades in the US Open men's match between Yibing Wu and Adam Walton lands on Walton, priced at 53%. That's near a coin flip, so the flow is the signal here, not the price. We lean Walton.
View market →In the LEC regular season, $15.6k across six trades backs Fnatic to win the best-of-three against GIANTX, with Fnatic at 56%. We lean Fnatic.
View market →The week's strongest signal by score: $32.9k across ten trades betting Yes on Flávio Bolsonaro winning the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with Yes at 41%. We lean Bolsonaro; the market resolves October 4.
View market →$19.4k across three trades on No — Republicans do not take both the Senate and the House in the 2026 US midterms — with that No side already priced at 88%. We lean against the sweep, resolving November 3.
View market →$10.2k across three trades backs Yes — the US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30 — at 85% implied. Small size but a high score, and we lean with it: the ceasefire holds.
View market →The most-traded market of the week at eleven trades and $16.3k, all leaning Yes: Vinicius Junior stays at Real Madrid, priced at 82%. We lean stay, with the window question settling September 2.
View market →$11.9k across three trades bets Yes that the next Mythos-class Claude model from Anthropic is released by September 9, 2026, at 68% implied. We lean yes, it ships in time.
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