Six markets settle today, led by a pair of Iran markets where the money is positioned for escalation rather than calm. Two longer-dated bets round out the week's highest-scoring flow.
About $20K across four trades landed on the No side — meaning the ceasefire does not continue through August 31 — at an 84% implied price. It's the strongest-scoring signal in today's set, and it resolves tonight.
View market →Roughly $15K over five trades bought Yes — the US announcing a blockade on Iran by today — at 60% implied. Alongside the ceasefire market, the flow is leaning toward escalation between Washington and Tehran.
View market →Tagged to the US-Canada trade war, this one drew about $14.7K across four trades on Yes at 67% implied. It settles at the end of today, so the flow is betting the rename lands within hours.
View market →A single $16K trade backed Carlos Alcaraz to beat Roman Safiullin at the US Open, with Alcaraz at 80% implied. Size and conviction in one ticket, resolving this afternoon.
View market →About $10.8K over three trades backed Yes — FC Barcelona to win against Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — at 86% implied. It's the chalk side, but the flow is entirely one-way ahead of this evening's match.
View market →The biggest book on today's board at roughly $61.5K across three trades, all on MOUZ to win the best-of-three against Team Falcons in BLAST Open Porto Group B. At 47% implied, that's money on the slight underdog.
View market →This Middle East defence-pact market — tagged to Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan — drew about $13K across two trades on No, that no country joins by December 31, 2026, at 80% implied. A slow-burn position rather than a same-day call.
View market →One trade worth roughly $17.1K took the No side — Manchester City not winning the 2026-27 English Premier League — at 71% implied. It doesn't settle until the end of next May.
View market →