Five markets resolve today, and five more drew the week's biggest smart-money flow. Here's where the size landed and which side we lean.
A single $21.2k trade took the Minnesota Twins to beat the Detroit Tigers, with that side priced at a near coin-flip 52%. Size that concentrated on an even-money baseball line is what we track; we lean Twins.
View market →One $15.4k trade backed the Under on a 8.5-run total in Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox, priced at 49%. We lean Under — fewer than 8.5 combined runs.
View market →Two trades worth $11.8k backed Alex Molcan to beat Benjamin Bonzi at the US Open, even though his side is priced at just 37%. Money taking the underdog against the market price is where informed flow usually shows up; we lean Molcan.
View market →A $11.7k trade landed on Ann Li to beat Donna Vekic in their US Open WTA match, with Li at 62%. It carries the lowest conviction score on today's board, but the flow is one-sided; we lean Li.
View market →A single $10.1k trade backed Valentin Vacherot to beat Kamil Majchrzak at the US Open, with Vacherot at 55%. A slim favorite drawing five figures in one ticket; we lean Vacherot.
View market →The week's largest flow — $138.8k across two trades — sits on No for a US invasion of Iran before 2027, with No priced at 86%. We lean with the No side: the money is paying up for the status quo rather than hedging escalation.
View market →One $18.9k trade backs Yes on the Democratic Party controlling the House after the 2026 US midterm elections, priced at 81%. It resolves with the November 3 vote; we lean Yes.
View market →Ten separate trades totaling $25.9k back Manchester City FC to win against Coventry City FC on September 5, with a Man City win at 84%. It's the highest-scoring event in this digest and the only one with double-digit trade count; we lean Man City.
View market →A single $35.5k trade sits on Yes for a Fed rate hike in 2026, priced at 71%. That's an outsized one-ticket bet on a macro market that doesn't settle until December; we lean Yes.
View market →One $33.2k trade backs Yes on Bitcoin dipping to $50,000 by December 31, 2026, with Yes at 56%. Real size on a downside touch that the market treats as close to a toss-up; we lean Yes.
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