Five markets resolve today, led by baseball underdogs and two US Open matches. The week's biggest flow sits in politics: Brazil's presidential race drew the strongest signal we tracked.
A single $50K trade landed on Taylor Fritz to beat Mattia Bellucci, a side the market already prices at 89%. We lean Fritz; the interest here is one wallet sizing up on a heavy favorite rather than a crowd.
View market →Thirteen trades worth $36.7K piled onto Baltimore in the Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles game, with the Orioles priced at just 44%. It is the strongest signal on today's board, and we lean Orioles.
View market →Two trades totaling $31.3K backed Jan-Lennard Struff against Francisco Cerundolo, with Struff at 38% implied. We lean Struff — the money is taking the side the market has priced as the loser.
View market →$15.3K across three trades bets on more than 8.5 combined runs between the San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates, a side trading at 54%. We lean Over.
View market →Three trades worth $12.6K went to the Chicago White Sox to beat the Houston Astros, with Chicago at 40% implied. We lean White Sox.
View market →Ten trades totaling $32.9K bought the Yes side on Flavio Bolsonaro winning Brazil's 2026 presidential election, currently priced at 41%. We lean Yes — this was the week's highest-scoring flow, and it settles October 4.
View market →Four trades worth $13.3K took the No side — no Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15 — which the market prices at 64%. We lean No, meaning no meeting before the deadline.
View market →Four trades worth $11.5K bought No on United Russia landing between 310 and 324 State Duma seats, with the No side at 77%. We lean No — the money expects the seat count to fall outside that band.
View market →A single $28.7K trade backed Salahdine Parnasse against Dan Hooker on the September 5 UFC Fight Night lightweight main card, where Parnasse is already favored at 83%. We lean Parnasse.
View market →Three trades totaling $11.9K bought Yes on the next Mythos-class Claude model being released by September 9, a side trading at 68%. We lean Yes — the flow agrees with the market that a release lands on time.
View market →