Six markets resolve today, led by $272,500 of flow on Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Union Berlin. The week's wider board is mostly geopolitics — Israeli airspace, a US-Iran ceasefire, and Brazil's first round.
At $272,500 across 10 trades, this is by far the largest flow on today's board, and it leans to Bayer 04 Leverkusen beating 1. FC Union Berlin at 70% implied. We lean with it: Leverkusen win.
View market →$47,100 over five trades backs Manchester City FC to beat Coventry City FC, priced at 86% implied. Not a long shot, but the flow is entirely one-directional, and we lean Manchester City.
View market →$29,700 across four trades favors Mirra Andreeva over Nikola Bartunkova in this US Open WTA match, at 79% implied. We lean Andreeva.
View market →A single trade worth $28,700 backs Salahdine Parnasse over Dan Hooker in their UFC Fight Night lightweight main-card bout, at 83% implied. Size without spread — one wallet's conviction, and we lean Parnasse.
View market →$22,100 across nine trades backs FC Bayern München to beat FC Schalke 04 at 85% implied, and it carries the strongest signal score of today's soccer markets. We lean Bayern.
View market →The tightest market resolving today: Vitality at 60% implied to win the best-of-three against MOUZ at the BLAST Open Porto playoffs of this esports event. Only $11,400 traded across three trades, but it scores highest on today's board, and we lean Vitality.
View market →$73,700 across 22 trades — the broadest participation on the week's board — leans Yes, that Israel closes its airspace by September 30, at 70% implied. We lean with it: airspace closes.
View market →$31,500 over five trades backs Flávio Bolsonaro to finish in second place in the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election, at 89% implied. Near-consensus pricing, and the flow agrees — we lean yes, he takes second.
View market →$16,400 across four trades leans Yes on an effective US-Iran ceasefire — defined as a two-week pause — beginning by September 30, at 77% implied. We lean toward the ceasefire happening.
View market →A single $11,500 trade takes the No side of Chelsea FC beating Arsenal FC on September 6, with that No priced at 80% implied. It's one wallet, but it's the entire flow here, and we lean against a Chelsea win.
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