September 7, 2026

Six markets close today: two US Open leans and an MLB under

Six events resolve today, and the heaviest money sits on an MLB total and two US Open ATP matches. Over the past week, the biggest flow went to Alcaraz's US Open title market and to fading two diplomacy markets.

Resolving Today

MLB: big money on the under in Guardians-Orioles

Leaning: Under (50% implied)

$66.7k across six trades, the largest position on today's board, backing the under on the 7.5 run total in Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles. The under is priced at a coin-flip 50%, and we lean under.

View market →

Soccer: sharps bet against a Cagliari win over Lecce

Leaning: No (54% implied)

$55.5k over four trades says Cagliari Calcio will not beat US Lecce, with that no side priced at 54%. We lean against a Cagliari win.

View market →

Tennis: US Open money on Khachanov over Tien

Leaning: Karen Khachanov (37% implied)

Seven trades totaling $38.5k back Karen Khachanov against Learner Tien at the US Open, at a 37% implied price — an underdog bet by the market's own odds. We lean Khachanov.

View market →

Tennis: US Open backing for Blockx over Cerundolo

Leaning: Alexander Blockx (60% implied)

The strongest composite signal on today's slate at 8.4, with $33.8k across eight trades on Alexander Blockx to beat Francisco Cerundolo, priced at 60%. We lean Blockx.

View market →

MLB: money on the Phillies over the Braves

Leaning: Philadelphia Phillies (60% implied)

Just three trades, but $32.0k of size, on Philadelphia to beat Atlanta at a 60% implied price. We lean Phillies.

View market →

Tennis: US Open WTA money on Swiatek vs Zheng

Leaning: Iga Swiatek (78% implied)

$17.1k over four trades backing Iga Swiatek against Qinwen Zheng, already a heavy favorite at 78% implied. We lean Swiatek.

View market →

Top This Week

Geopolitics: money says no Israel-Lebanon meeting by September 15

Leaning: No (64% implied)

Four trades worth $13.3k landed on the no side — no Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15 — which is priced at 64%. We lean no.

View market →

Geopolitics: sharps fade Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30

Leaning: No (74% implied)

$11.7k across three trades on no — no Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30 — with that side priced at 74%. We lean no.

View market →

Tennis: week's top signal on Alcaraz winning US Open

Leaning: Yes (48% implied)

The highest-scoring market of the week at 9.2 composite, with 11 trades and $27.6k on yes — Carlos Alcaraz winning the 2026 Men's US Open — at 48% implied. We lean yes, with the market resolving September 13.

View market →

AI: traders bet on Anthropic Mythos-class model by September 9

Leaning: Yes (68% implied)

$11.9k over three trades on yes, that the next Mythos-class Anthropic model ships by September 9, with yes at 68% implied. We lean yes.

View market →

LoL: sharps back Invictus Gaming vs LGD in LPL playoffs

Leaning: Invictus Gaming (63% implied)

$36.4k across nine trades on Invictus Gaming to win their best-of-five League of Legends LPL playoff series against LGD Gaming, at 63% implied. We lean Invictus Gaming.

View market →