Five markets resolve today and five drew the week's heaviest smart money. Here's where the flow is landing and which side it favors.
About $20K across three trades on whether Israel takes military action against Lebanon today, and the flow sits on No at an 88% implied price. Smart money is treating a strike as unlikely before the market closes tonight.
View market →A single $98K trade — the largest ticket in today's slate — landed on Sporting CP to win at 54% implied. That is a near coin-flip price backed with real size on the home side.
View market →Roughly $14K over three trades on the Paris Saint-Germain spread against Slovan Bratislava, leaning PSG -3.5 at 52% implied. The flow expects PSG to win by four or more, not just win.
View market →Five trades totaling about $14K sided with Stuttgart to win at 77% implied, the highest-scoring signal on today's board. Smart money is paying up on the favorite rather than hunting the upset.
View market →A single $12K trade took the Under on the 3.5-goal total in Liverpool vs. Club Atlético de Madrid at 60% implied. The lean is three goals or fewer in a heavyweight matchup.
View market →About $32K across five trades backs Yes — Flávio Bolsonaro takes second place in the first round of Brazil's presidential election — at 89% implied. Smart money sees his runoff berth as close to settled ahead of the October 4 vote.
View market →The week's strongest signal by score: 12 trades and roughly $30K leaning No on "no change in rates," priced at 50% implied. That is a true coin flip on whether the Fed moves on September 16, and the flow is on a move.
View market →Four trades worth about $27K sit on No for a US-Iran effective ceasefire beginning by September 30, with that No side priced at 24% implied. Smart money is fading the deal even though the market itself leans toward one happening.
View market →Roughly $17K over four trades backs Yes — AfD takes the most seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election — at 80% implied. The September 20 vote is drawing steady conviction flow, not a late scramble.
View market →Nearly $94K across six trades, the biggest weekly total here, took the Under on 44.5 points in Patriots vs. Seahawks at 51% implied. Size is on the low-scoring side of a market that is otherwise split down the middle.
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